《科學美國人》月刊網(wǎng)站近日刊發(fā)文章盤點了2020年十大新興技術(shù)。一個國際專家指導(dǎo)小組評選出今年的十大新興技術(shù)。獲得認可的技術(shù)必須有推動社會和經(jīng)濟進步的潛力，還需要有新意且可能會在未來三到五年內(nèi)產(chǎn)生重大影響。

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1. Microneedles Could Enable Painless Injections and Blood Draws

微針可實現(xiàn)無痛注射和抽血

Barely visible needles, or “microneedles,” are poised to usher in an era of pain-free injections and blood testing. Whether attached to a syringe or a patch, microneedles prevent pain by avoiding contact with nerve endings. Typically 50 to 2,000 microns in length (about the depth of a sheet of paper) and one to 100 microns wide (about the width of human hair), they penetrate the dead, top layer of skin to reach into the epidermis. But most do not reach or only barely touch the underlying dermis, where the nerve endings lie.

幾乎看不見的針頭，即“微針”，將帶來無痛注射和驗血的時代。微針可連接注射器，也可連接貼片，它能避免與神經(jīng)末梢接觸，從而防止疼痛。微針一般長50微米至2000微米（大約相當于一張紙的厚度）、寬1微米至100微米（大約相當于人的頭發(fā)粗細），它穿透細胞已死亡的皮膚最上層進入表皮。但大多數(shù)微針不會抵達或者只是稍稍接觸到下面的真皮，也就是神經(jīng)末梢所在的地方。

2. Sun-Powered Chemistry Can Turn Carbon Dioxide into Common Materials

光催化將二氧化碳轉(zhuǎn)化為普通材料

The manufacture of many chemicals important to human health and comfort consumes fossil fuels, thereby contributing to carbon dioxide emissions and climate change. A new approach employs sunlight to convert waste carbon dioxide into these needed chemicals.

許多對人類健康和舒適十分重要的化學品在生產(chǎn)時要消耗礦物燃料，從而會增加二氧化碳排放和加劇氣候變化。一種新的方法是利用陽光將廢棄二氧化碳轉(zhuǎn)化成我們需要的這些化學物質(zhì)。

This process is becoming increasingly feasible thanks to advances in sunlight-activated catalysts, or photocatalysts. In recent years investigators have developed photocatalysts that break the resistant double bond between carbon and oxygen in carbon dioxide. This is a critical first step in creating “solar” refineries that produce useful compounds from the waste gas—including “platform” molecules that can serve as raw materials for the synthesis of such varied products as medicines, detergents, fertilizers and textiles.

得益于光催化技術(shù)的進步，這個工藝越來越可行。近年來，研究人員開發(fā)出了能夠還原二氧化碳中碳和氧的光催化劑。在此基礎(chǔ)上就能創(chuàng)建“太陽能”提煉廠，用廢氣生產(chǎn)有用的化合物，包括可用于合成藥物、洗滌劑、肥料和紡織品等多種產(chǎn)品的“平臺”分子。

3. Virtual Patients Could Revolutionize Medicine

虛擬患者能徹底改變醫(yī)學

What if computers could replace patients as well? If virtual humans could have replaced real people in some stages of a coronavirus vaccine trial, for instance, it could have sped development of a preventive tool and slowed down the pandemic. These are some of the benefits of “in silico medicine,” or the testing of drugs and treatments on virtual organs or body systems to predict how a real person will respond to the therapies. For the foreseeable future, real patients will be needed in late-stage studies, but in silico trials will make it possible to conduct quick and inexpensive first assessments of safety and efficacy, drastically reducing the number of live human subjects required for experimentation.

如果電腦能替代患者，那會怎樣？比方說，如果在新冠疫苗試驗的某些階段能用虛擬人替代真人，那可能就會加快預(yù)防手段的研發(fā)而減緩疫情蔓延。這就是“電腦模擬醫(yī)學”的一些好處，即：用虛擬器官或人體系統(tǒng)來測試藥物和治療方法，進而推斷真人對這些療法的反應(yīng)。在可預(yù)見的未來，后期研究會需要真人患者，但有了電腦模擬試驗，科研人員將能夠?qū)λ幬锖椭委煼椒ǖ陌踩院陀行赃M行速度快、成本低的初步評估，從而大大減少試驗所需活體人類受試者的數(shù)量。

4. Spatial Computing Could Be the Next Big Thing

空間計算或是下一個大熱門

Imagine Martha, an octogenarian who lives independently and uses a wheelchair. As Martha moves from her bedroom to the kitchen, the lights switch on, and the ambient temperature adjusts. The chair will slow if her cat crosses her path. If she begins to fall when getting into bed, her furniture shifts to protect her, and an alert goes to her son and the local monitoring station.

設(shè)想80多歲的瑪莎獨居且需要坐輪椅。瑪莎從臥室到廚房時，照明燈開啟，周圍溫度適當調(diào)整。如果貓貓從前面經(jīng)過，輪椅會減速。如果她上床的時候有摔倒跡象，家具會迅速挪過來保護她，同時她的兒子和當?shù)乇O(jiān)測站將接到警報。

The “spatial computing” at the heart of this scene is the next step in the ongoing convergence of the physical and digital worlds. It does everything virtual-reality and augmented-reality apps do: digitize objects that connect via the cloud; allow sensors and motors to react to one another; and digitally represent the real world. Then it combines these capabilities with high-fidelity spatial mapping to enable a computer “coordinator” to track and control the movements and interactions of objects as a person navigates through the digital or physical world. Spatial computing will soon bring human-machine and machine-machine interactions to new levels of efficiency in many walks of life, among them industry, health care, transportation and the home.

這一場景的核心就是“空間計算”，它是現(xiàn)實世界與數(shù)字世界正在融合的下一步方向。虛擬現(xiàn)實和增強現(xiàn)實應(yīng)用軟件能做的，它全都能做到：把云連接的物體數(shù)字化，讓傳感器和馬達彼此呼應(yīng)，以數(shù)字化方式呈現(xiàn)真實世界。然后，它將這些能力與高保真的空間測繪結(jié)合起來，使計算機“協(xié)調(diào)員”能夠在一個人穿行于數(shù)字或現(xiàn)實世界時追蹤和控制物體的移動和相互感應(yīng)。空間計算很快將在各行各業(yè)把人機互動和機器互動提升到新的高度，包括在工業(yè)、醫(yī)療、交通和家居領(lǐng)域。

5. Digital Medicine Can Diagnose and Treat What Ails You

數(shù)字醫(yī)療可診斷和治療一切病痛

A raft of apps in use or under development can now detect or monitor mental and physical disorders autonomously or directly administer therapies.Collectively known as digital medicines, the software can both enhance traditional medical care and support patients when access to health care is limited—a need that the COVID-19 crisis has exacerbated.

投入使用或正在開發(fā)的大量應(yīng)用程序現(xiàn)在能夠自主檢查或監(jiān)測身心疾病或直接給予治療。這種軟件被統(tǒng)稱為數(shù)字醫(yī)療，它可以加強傳統(tǒng)醫(yī)療，也可以在醫(yī)療服務(wù)受限的情況下給予患者支持——這在新冠肺炎危機背景下格外需要。

6. Electric Aviation Could Be Closer Than You Think

電動航空的到來可能早于預(yù)期

In 2019 air travel accounted for 2.5 percent of global carbon emissions, a number that could triple by 2050. While some airlines have started offsetting their contributions to atmospheric carbon, significant cutbacks are still needed. Electric airplanes could provide the scale of transformation required, and many companies are racing to develop them. Not only would electric propulsion motors eliminate direct carbon emissions, they could reduce fuel costs by up to 90 percent, maintenance by up to 50 percent and noise by nearly 70 percent.

2019年，航空旅行的碳排放占全球總量的2.5%，這一數(shù)字到2050年可能會達到2019年的三倍。雖然有些航空公司已開始為其大氣層碳排放進行補償，但更大力度的減排措施勢在必行。電動飛機可提供所需的改造規(guī)模，多家公司正在競相開發(fā)。電動推進的馬達不僅能消滅直接的碳排放，還能使燃料成本降低高達90%、維護成本降低高達50%、噪音降低近70%。

7.Low-Carbon Cement Can Help Combat Climate Change

低碳水泥可幫助應(yīng)對氣候變化

Concrete, the most widely used human-made material. The manufacture of one of its key components, cement, creates a substantial yet underappreciated amount of human-produced carbon dioxide: up to 8 percent of the global total, according to London-based think tank Chatham House.

混凝土是建筑業(yè)中使用最廣泛的人造材料。據(jù)位于倫敦的智庫英國皇家國際問題研究所說，其關(guān)鍵組成部分之一——水泥在生產(chǎn)中產(chǎn)生的二氧化碳數(shù)量驚人，占全球排放總量高達8%，但未得到充分重視。

In 2018 the Global Cement and Concrete Association, which represents about 30 percent of worldwide production, announced the industry's first Sustainability Guidelines, a set of key measurements such as emissions and water usage intended to track performance improvements and make them transparent.

2018年，代表全球產(chǎn)量約30%的全球水泥和混凝土協(xié)會宣布了該行業(yè)的首個可持續(xù)發(fā)展指導(dǎo)方針，這是一套設(shè)計碳排放和用水等領(lǐng)域的關(guān)鍵指標，旨在跟蹤性能改善，并使其透明化。

8.Quantum Sensors Could Let Autonomous Cars ‘See’ around Corners

量子傳感器讓自動汽車“看清”彎道

Quantum computers get all the hype, but quantum sensors could be equally transformative, enabling autonomous vehicles that can “see” around corners, underwater navigation systems, early-warning systems for volcanic activity and earthquakes, and portable scanners that monitor a person's brain activity during daily life.

量子傳感器與量子計算機一樣具有變革性，可推動實現(xiàn)能“看清”彎道的自動駕駛汽車、水下導(dǎo)航系統(tǒng)、火山活動和地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)，以及監(jiān)測人的日常大腦活動的便攜式掃描儀。

Quantum sensors reach extreme levels of precision by exploiting the quantum nature of matter. Atomic clocks illustrate this principle. Other quantum sensors use atomic transitions to detect minuscule changes in motion and tiny differences in gravitational, electric and magnetic fields.

量子傳感器利用物質(zhì)的量子特性達到極高的精準度，原子鐘就是一個例子。其他量子傳感器則利用原子躍遷來探測動作的微小變化以及引力場、電場和磁場中的細微差異。

9. Green Hydrogen Could Fill Big Gaps in Renewable Energy

綠色氫可填補可再生能源的巨大空白

氫燃燒的唯一副產(chǎn)品是水，這就是為什么氫幾十年來一直是一種誘人的零碳能源來源。然而，傳統(tǒng)的礦物燃料制氫法遠遠達不到零碳排放。

綠色氫有所不同，它是通過電解產(chǎn)生的，機器把水分解成氫和氧，沒有其他副產(chǎn)品。從歷史上看，電解需要的電力太多，用這種方式制氫根本不劃算。但情況正在發(fā)生變化，原因有二。其一，如今有了大量富余的可再生能源電力，這些富余電力可以用來對水進行電解，把電力以氫的形式“儲存”起來。其二，電解器的效率越來越高。

10. Whole-Genome Synthesis Will Transform Cell Engineering

全基因組合成將徹底改變細胞工程學

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists in China uploaded the virus's genetic sequence to genetic databases. A Swiss group then synthesized the entire genome and produced the virus from it—essentially teleporting the virus into their laboratory for study without having to wait for physical samples. Such speed is one example of how whole-genome printing is advancing medicine and other endeavors.

新冠肺炎疫情初期，中國的科學家將新冠病毒的基因序列上傳到了基因數(shù)據(jù)庫。然后，瑞士的一個研究小組用它合成了完整的基因組、制造出這種病毒——基本上就能將病毒傳送到實驗室進行研究，而無需等待實物樣本。這樣的速度充分說明了全基因組打印技術(shù)對醫(yī)學和其他工作的促進作用。

Whole-genome synthesis is an extension of the booming field of synthetic biology. Researchers use software to design genetic sequences that they produce and introduce into a microbe, thereby reprogramming the microbe to do desired work—such as making a new medicine. So far genomes mainly get light edits. But improvements in synthesis technology and software are making it possible to print ever larger swaths of genetic material and to alter genomes more extensively.

全基因組合成是蓬勃發(fā)展的合成生物學的延伸。研究人員用軟件設(shè)計出基因序列，將其制造出來植入微生物，從而對這個微生物進行重新編程使之按照人的意愿發(fā)揮作用，比如形成一種新藥。到目前為止，基因組只能接受輕微的編輯。但隨著合成技術(shù)和軟件的改進，打印鏈條更長的遺傳物質(zhì)、更廣泛地改變基因組成為可能。